Certainty is an illusion.
Intuere helps you understand what prediction markets are actually implying — by interpreting probabilities, not pretending to predict the future.
Early access includes explanations and analysis shared by email.
The problem
Journalists quote experts who speak in soft language: “likely”, “probably”, “could potentially”.
Prediction markets aggregate thousands of informed opinions into precise probabilities.
But what does 41% actually mean? Is that high or low? How confident should you be? What changed from yesterday's 38%?
What Intuere does
Intuere analyzes live prediction market data and provides clear, contextual interpretations of what the probabilities imply.
We explain what a given probability means, how it has shifted over time, and what degree of confidence the market consensus reflects.
Intuere does not predict outcomes. It interprets what prediction market prices are actually saying.
How it works
From raw probability to clear understanding in seconds
A 23% probability is relatively low — the market considers this outcome unlikely but not impossible. For context, a 20-30% chance is roughly equivalent to rolling a 1 or 2 on a six-sided die.
The probability dropped 4 percentage points since yesterday, suggesting new information (likely economic data or Fed commentary) reduced expectations for an aggressive rate cut.
Don't plan around this happening, but keep it on your radar. The market is pricing in roughly 1-in-4 odds — meaningful enough to acknowledge, but the base case remains a smaller cut or no cut at all.
What you get
Live market data
Real-time probabilities from Polymarket and other prediction markets, updated every 15 minutes.
Plain English explanations
Statistical context translated into clear language you can use in articles, reports, or investment decisions.
Historical context
See how probabilities have changed over time and understand what drove major shifts in market sentiment.
Why not just use ChatGPT?
ChatGPT doesn't have access to live prediction market data, and its training cutoff means it can't explain what today's probabilities mean in the context of recent changes.
More importantly, explaining probabilities well requires consistent, calibrated judgment. Generic LLMs will give you different explanations for the same probability depending on phrasing, and they lack the domain-specific context that makes explanations useful.
Intuere is purpose-built for interpreting prediction markets: it tracks market sources, monitors historical price movements, understands probability calibration, and generates consistent, grounded explanations of what market expectations actually mean.
Who this is for
Built for people who care about accuracy
Journalists
Add precision and context to your reporting. Reference market probabilities with confidence, knowing you understand what the numbers actually mean.
Investors
Stop second-guessing what market odds imply. Get clear explanations that help you make better-informed decisions without the mental overhead.
Analysts
Incorporate prediction market intelligence into your research and presentations. Communicate probability in terms your stakeholders will understand.
Get early access
We're starting with a small private beta.
No spam. No venture-backed growth tactics.
Just a useful tool for people who think in probabilities.